The contraction in European industry is approaching: How will governments react?
Every day, large industrial groups (Ford and BASF in the recent period) announce that they are going to destroy jobs in Europe. It is well known that the energy transition and the transformation of the global economy in to a service economy will lead to a new wave of manufacturing job destruction in the euro zone. So how could governments, the European Commission and the ECB react ? Unlike the United States, Europe is not at all taking the path of protectionism. On the contrary, it is signing free trade agreements (Japan, Mercosur), probably with the idea of find ing new outlets for its industry. A mid the regionalisation of value chains, this strategy may not be very effective ; The euro zone may be tempted by a depreciation of the euro, which could be one of the explanations for the very expansionary monetary policy conducted by the ECB ; as the Federal Reserve will cut its interest rates, it is possible that the euro on the contrary will appreciate; Tax and social competition between European countries may gather momentum , the objective being to let the other countries suffer the factory job losses. These reactions to factory job losses are altogether ineffective (free trade, effort to weaken the euro) or dangerous (tax competition) .