The crucial question for the United States: For how much longer will employment be able to grow faster than the labour force?

As long as employment can grow faster than the working-age population in the United States, US growth can remain higher than potential growth. But given the very low level of unemployment, it is reasonable to think that fairly soon , employment will no longer be able to grow faster than the labour force. Growth will then slow down, with significant impacts on financial markets to be expected. To try to determine for how much longer employment will be able to grow rapidly in the United States, we look at employment rates, by age bracket, gender and level of educational attainment. For which category of the population can we see a catching-up from the pre-crisis levels that could continue (looking at the employment rate where the participation rate is equivalent when the unemployment rate is low and stable). We see that this concerns men aged 20 to 39 and women aged 40 to 54, and Americans with a secondary education. So it seems that the potential for a rise in employment due to a rise in the employment rate is currently 0.7 % to 1% in the United States, which makes it possible to keep growth higher than potential growth for two to three quarters.