The current lack of a link between the reality of risks and risk measurements
Many risks are now very high: Geopolitical risk; Economic risk (of recession, rising default rates ); Financial risk (due to the high variability of long-term interest rates, the high level of interest rate risk, and the lack , for the time being, of any impact of the rise in real long-term interest rates on equity markets ). Yet the various measures of risk perception (risk perception indices, implied volatility of equity options) are at all-time lows. There is a total decorrelation between available risk measurements and the reality of risk. In the past, this decorrelation led to a subsequent sharp upward correction in risk perception.