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The decline in the labour supply may lead to a loss of potential GDP, or be offset by an effort to automate and increase productivity or by immigration
In several major countries, there has been a decline in the labour supply due to: Population ageing (China, Germany, Italy, Spain and Japan); A decline in the participation of the working-age population in the labour market (in the recent period, United States, United Kingdom). When the labour supply declines , there can be several possible consequences: Simply a loss of potential GDP (which can be seen today in China, Germany, Spain and Italy.); An effort to automate and increase productivity that maintains potential GDP (which currently can perhaps only be seen in the United States); Immigration to maintain the labour force (which can be seen currently in the United States, the United Kingdom, Spain and Germany).
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Natixis
Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.
Patrick Artus
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