The degree of underemployment and core inflation

For how long will core inflation remain very low in the United States and the euro zone, and when will it return to the level of central banks’ inflation target? To estimate this, we estimate econometrically the link between the output gap (gap between potential GDP and GDP) and core inflation in the United States and the euro zone, and we look at what time in the future the output gap could be such that core inflation reaches 2%. This could happen : In the United States by the end of 2023; In the euro zone, not before 2024. In both cases, a negative output gap will persist until 2023.