Report
Patrick Artus

The direction of the relationship between monetary and fiscal policy in the euro zone

There is no difficulty analysing the current direction of the relationship between monetary policy and fiscal policy in the euro zone: fiscal policy is restrictive, which forces the ECB to conduct an expansionary monetary policy, which also has the virtue of maintaining fiscal solvency in the euro-zone countries with high public debt ratios (France, Spain, Italy, Belgium, Portugal, Greece). But what would happen if the euro zone’s growth slowdown led to an expansionary fiscal policy ( in particular in Germany, but also in the Netherlands, Ireland, Austria and Finland)? On the one hand, if activity were stimulated more by fiscal policy, then monetary policy would need to become less expansionary; But on the other hand, if the euro zone’s public debt ratio rose further , then an even more expansionary monetary policy would be needed to maintain fiscal solvency. So it is not certain that a more expansionary fiscal policy in the euro zone would exempt monetary policy from having to be highly expansionary.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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