Natixis - The divergence between industry (in recession) and services (strong growth) will have a lasting effect on economies

Report

Natixis

Patrick Artus

The divergence between industry (in recession) and services (strong growth) will have a lasting effect on economies

There is currently a divergence between i ndustry and services in all countries: industry is being weakened by the global downturn in demand for industrial products, while services are bolstered by the shift in demand from industry to services and by stimulatory economic policies. The typical configuration has therefore become a recession in industry and relatively strong or ev en vigorous growth in services. This configuration is going to transfer factors of production from industry to services, which will amplify the fall in productivity gains, the polarisation of labour markets and inequalities.

03/04/2019 8 EN

Provider

Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

See profile

Analysts

Patrick Artus

Other Reports from Natixis

Alicia Garcia Herrero ... (+3)

Alicia Garcia Herrero
Gary NG
Kohei Iwahara

Japan: Macro and geopolitics brew winners in industrials, IT and financials

Hoping that Japan will escape its prolonged economic underperformance that began in the early 1990s, global investors returned in late 2023. Shortly after, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) terminated its negative interest rate policy in March 2024, and nominal wages rose to their highest level in three decades. In this note, we analyze the prospects of Japan’s macroeconomic environment and market changes, followed by our projection of winning sectors amid the current geopolitical landscape.Japan in transition out of prolonged deflationWith the rebound in nominal wage growth, the BoJ terminated its nega...

6h / 10m 6h / 10m 1 EN

Christopher HODGE ... (+2)

Christopher HODGE
Jonathan PINGLE

Section 899: A tool to increase revenue or to change foreign tax policy?

The One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) that was passed by the US House of Representatives includes a new set of retaliatory ta xes in Section 899 that could potentially have significant effects on financial flows into the US and bilateral tax treaties. It’s being called a “revenge tax” because it’s specifically designed to apply only in cases where other countries are deemed to be imposing unfair taxes against U S companies. Many of the provisions of the OBBB are currently being debated in Congress and it remains to be seen what, if any, version of section 899 is included in the final bill...

June 6, 2025 June 6, 2025 1 EN

Inna Mufteeva

Inna Mufteeva

ECB Takes Summer Pause to Preserve Monetary Policy Flexibility

While the decision for a new 25bp cut in the ECB's deposit rate was widely anticipated, the notably more hawkish tone of President Lagarde's speech surprised the markets. The persistent uncertainties surrounding trade relations between the United States and the eurozone seem to have justified this desire to maintain the " optionality " of monetary policy, which, according to Lagarde, is now "well positioned." However, last week was not particularly reassuring in terms of macroeconomic indicators, especially for the PMI indices of the United States, the eurozone, and China, as well as for Europ...

June 6, 2025 June 6, 2025 1 EN

Sign-up for free to access full reports immediately

Email Address*

Choose Password* ( 6 or more characters )

Due to regulatory restrictions regarding the distribution of financial research, this report is restricted to a specific region or investor type. Get access to exclusive reports by answering the questions below.

Select your country*

Get financial insights straight to your inbox

By clicking "register" you accept the Terms and Conditions & Privacy Policy

Already on ResearchPool?

Almost there...

Are you a professional investor?

Select your country

REGISTER

Create a free ResearchPool account to access full reports, get a personalised dashboard and follow providers or companies

In order to access this report please create an account.

LOGIN

The divergence between industry (in recession) and services (strong growth) will have a lasting effect on economies

Japan: Macro and geopolitics brew winners in industrials, IT and financials

Section 899: A tool to increase revenue or to change foreign tax policy?

ECB Takes Summer Pause to Preserve Monetary Policy Flexibility

Create a free ResearchPool account to access full reports, get a personalised dashboard and follow providers or companies

Sign-up for free to access full reports immediately

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Why subscribe?

How to subscribe

ResearchPool Subscriptions

This report is only available to subscribers

Why subscribe?

How to subscribe