Report
Patrick Artus

The ECB is asking none of the right questions

Mario Draghi’s statements in early June (no interest rate hike before the end of the first half of 2020; new TLTRO at conditions almost as favourable as the previous one; if needed, new expansionary measures - probably a cut to the interest rate on deposits and a resumption of quantitative easing) reveal that the ECB operates in quite a simplistic fashion: inflation remains below target and expected inflation is falling, so monetary policy becomes more expansionary. Unfortunately, this routine behaviour by the ECB shows that it is asking none of the important questions for monetary policy today: What should the ECB do if inflation never does return in the euro zone? Do zero or negative interest rates not have contractionary effects on the economy? The ECB has responded somewhat hastily that it does not think that the weakening of banks is having a major negative effect. Also, are zero interest rates not dangerous: incentive to increase public debt, bubbles in real estate prices? Will fiscal policy forever remain the only tool capable of responding to an economic slowdown because interest rates remain at zero despite the sharp decline in unemployment?
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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