The ECB is betting that growth is not going to fall below potential growth in the euro zone

The ECB is keeping monetary policy expansionary at a time when the unemployment rate in the euro zone is nearing the structural unemployment rate. This means that the ECB has made the following bet: that keeping monetary policy expansionary in the euro zone is going to stop growth from falling below potential growth once the unemployment rate has returned to the level of the structural unemployment rate. If there is merely a soft landing in growth back to potential growth - and not below-potential low growth - then there would be no danger in the fact that monetary policy would have no leeway to support growth. The ECB will lose its bet if, despite its expansionary monetary policy, euro-zone growth falls well below potential growth (under the effect of protectionism, uncertainty or the end of the investment cycle) and monetary policy is powerless to support growth.