Report
The effect of barriers to global trade on growth in different regions
The number of barriers to world trade (tariffs, bans on imports or exports, bans on the transfer of certain technologies, etc.) has increased considerably since 2017. If the elasticity of global trade in goods in volume terms to real GDP had remained at its previous level (2), growth in global trade would have been 5.9 percentage points higher than it actually was in 2022, and 2.0 percentage points higher annually than in the first half of 2023. The slowdown in global trade in goods, compared with what it would have been if the elasticity of global trade to global GDP had remained the same as in the past, has led to a slowdown in GDP growth that we believe to be, between the first quarter of 2022 and the second quarter of 2023, of: 0.15 pp per year in the United States; 0.6 pp per year in the euro zone; 0.6 pp per year in China; 0.3 pp per year in Japan.
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