Report
Patrick Artus

The elimination of economic cycles and recessions by monetised fiscal policy: What consequences? What limits?

There is a clear new economic policy trend in OECD countries: there is no longer any tolerance for recessions, cyclical falls in activity or rising unemployment . I nstead, these are to be eliminated with the use of as expansionary a fiscal policy as needed combined with central bank monetisation of public debt. This policy is kept in place until full employment has been completely restored, i.e. not only when activity is falling, but also throughout entire growth periods. Th e result could be an OECD economy: Without cycles and recessions; With fiscal deficits that are always high but always fully monetised by central banks; Therefore with constant monetary expansion. But this policy will run into a limit : if the money supply increases constantly relative to GDP, there will come a time when demand for money can not increase any further (relative to income) and economic agents will no longer be willing to hold more money, even though the rise in the prices of other assets (bonds, equities, real estate) is conducive to an increase in demand for money . When this happens, this economic policy will inevitably have to be discontinued , as there will no longer be any economic agent willing to hold additional money.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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