Report
Patrick Artus

The euro zone always relapses after a recession

In the wake of the 2000-2001 and 2008-2009 recessions, whereas US growth got going again, the euro-zone economy relapsed (in 2002-2003-2004 and 2011-2012-2013) . These relapses are often attributed to excessively rapid fiscal deficit reduction (the case in 2011 , but not 2002), but other, more important mechanisms are also at play: The slow pace of the employment adjustment , as a result of which the labour market deteriorates for several years after a recession; Problems for banks, which restrict lending, weakening housing construction and corporate investment; The fact that monetary policy is slower to become expansionary in the euro zone than in the United States. Two of these four explanations may remain after the COVID crisis: the slow employment adjustment and problems for banks.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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