Report
Patrick Artus

The European Union's fiscal rules will not be applied

The European Union has made few changes to its fiscal rules (fiscal deficit to be kept below 3% of GDP, return to a public debt ratio of 60% of GDP). The only change is the introduction of a longer adjustment period for countries that implement structural reforms and a temporary exclusion of the increase in interest payments on public debt from the calculation of the deficit that must not be exceeded. It is quite likely that these fiscal rules will prove unworkable because of: Low productivity gains and potential growth, reduc ing tax revenues; The need for a massive increase in military spending because of the Russian threat and the possible reduction in US protection; The need to increase public spending on healthcare (due to population ageing), the energy and ecological transition, education (to improve quality) and research and development. There is an inconsistency between the outlook for growth and public spending and the fiscal rules.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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