Report
Patrick Artus

The fact that Europeans have a strong preference for risk-free savings will be a serious disadvantage

Euro-zone households have a strong preference for risk-free savings. This behaviour will be very detrimental for the euro zone: The ECB's purchases of public debt will lead to a major scarcity of risk-free bonds, since demand for such bonds is strong, resulting in absurdly low long-term interest rates; The repetition of crises has led to an increase in the perception of risk associated with holding financial assets that finance companies (corporate bonds, equities); it is then impossible to see how companies' equity can be strengthened unless governments systematically provide them with guarantees; There is a parallel increase in bank deposits (perceived as risk-free and therefore in strong demand) and loans (increasingly risky given the fragility of corporate balance sheets), which complicates the situation of banks, whose liabilities are risk-free and whose assets are risky, and which will have to increase their capital at a time when demand for risky assets (bank shares) is weak. The euro zone's situation would be much simpler if savers would accept to hold more risky assets .
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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