Report
The fall in headline inflation in the euro zone is too brief to slow wage inflation
When we look at the trend in import prices and energy prices from 2008 to 2010, we see that these prices had a significant negative influence on headline inflation and wage increases from 2008 to 2014. This long period of disinflation linked to the fall in import prices therefore had time to cause a significant slowdown in wages. Today, from the beginning of 2024, import prices will stabilise and the disinflationary effect of the fall in import prices and in energy prices, which was very significant at the end of 2023, will disappear. The period of disinflation linked to the fall in import and energy prices will therefore be short-lived, and insufficient to trigger a significant slowdown in wages.
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Natixis
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