The false leads for inflation

The recent high inflation in the United States, the euro zone and the United Kingdom is not linked to a number of factors that are often mentioned: It is not due to excessive demand stimulus: GDP is still significantly lower than it would have been without the crisis; the fiscal deficits of 2020 and 2021 were offset by an increase in household savings; It is not due to an improvement in wage earners’ bargaining power: despite faster wage growth, income distribution is still skewed in favour of earnings; It is not due to expansionary monetary policies: the correlation between money supply growth and inflation disappeared long ago . The only remaining explanations for the inflation are then a series of supply shocks (raw materials, energy, transport, semiconductors, etc.), companies’ drive to raise their profit margins and the shift in the structure of demand.