The four major risks out to 2030

We believe OECD economies will be faced with four major risks and four major shocks in the next ten years : The effects of policies to combat climate change: massive technological change with very uncertain effects on growth will be needed to meet the CO 2 emission targets; Labour market polarisation caused by the disappearance of intermediate jobs, leading to increasing inequality, declining social mobility and major social and political risks; As debt ratios are very high, it is impossible to end policies that keep interest rates lower than growth, the result being a proliferation of bubbles, especially in real estate, which may add to social tension; The risk of a marked slowdown in the Chinese economy - which is faced with a number of structural problems - that would also weaken OECD economies.