The geopolitical shock caused by the energy transition

The energy transition will lead to: The end of fossil fuel consumption (oil, natural gas, coal), which will be very negative for countries where fossil fuel exports represent a significant part of GDP; Rapid growth in consumption of the commodities needed for the energy transition (copper, nickel, lithium, cobalt, aluminium, rare earths, etc.), which will of course be very positive for the countries where the reserves of these commodities are located. Among the countries with a large population, we see that: The losers will be OPEC countries, Russia, the republics of the former USSR, several African countries, Canada, Australia and Norway; The winners will be Chile, Peru, the Democratic Republic of Congo, China, most South-East Asian countries, Australia, Canada, Brazil and Russia. Australia, Canada and Russia will be able to compensate for the loss of fossil fuel production by producing the commodities needed for the energy transition . The situation of countries with large populations, whose economies are linked to fossil fuels, and which have no reserves of strategic metals (Middle Eastern countries, many African countries, former Soviet republics) is therefore very worrying in the long term.