The global savings-investment equilibrium and real interest rates after the coronavirus crisis

At the global level after the 2008-2009 subprime crisis, the private sector savings rate rose sharply and fiscal deficits increased although not sufficiently to absorb the increase in private savings. This resulted in a fall in real interest rates combined with a rise in the global investment rate. The fall in r eal interest rates was amplified by the fact that spontaneously, investment had been weakened by the decline in the weight of industry in the global economy. What will happen after the coronavirus crisis? It is reasonable to think that: As risk aversion will remain higher, the private sector savings rate will rise again; Fiscal deficits will remain durably high, due to the necessary stimulus policies after the crisis and the increase in the role played by governments (industrial policy, etc.); The world will deindustrialise further, as some sectors of manufacturing industry (automotive, capital goods) will be permanently weakened; If the rise in private savings is not absorbed by an increase in fiscal deficits ( by no means certain), then there will be another downward shift in real interest rates.