The global savings rate: Why has it risen, and could it fall in the future?

The link between the rise in the global savings rate and interest rates (nominal and real) is very significant and is twofold: In the short term, the rise in the savings rate gives rise to a deflationary risk, drives down inflation and drives central banks to conduct expansionary monetary policies; In the long term, the rise in the savings rate drives down the equilibrium real interest rate. A fall in the global savings rate would therefore lead to a rise in interest rates in the short and long term. So let us look at what has led to the rise in the global savings rate: A sharp rise in the private savings rate, significantly greater than the increase in fiscal deficits (including public investment), and ex ante greater than the need for private investment; The rise in the private savings rate stems from: In terms of regions: the United States, Africa, Latin America, China and India; In terms of cause: the anticipation of ageing, and, depending on the region, the rise in the standard of living and the development of banking networks that collect savings. Reversing these causes, we see that a significant fall in the global savings rate could mainly result from actual population ageing, which has already been seen in the European Union since 2010 and in China since 2011.