The high hopes of the 1990s and 2000s and today’s disappointment

T he 1990s and 2000s fuelled high hopes , which have now been dashed : New and digital technologies as well as artificial intelligence were going to lead to an acceleration in productivity gains, offset ting population ageing, reduc ing working time and eliminat ing tedious jobs. In reality, despite digital technologies and automation, productivity gains have decline d steadily and technological progress has led to the “polarisation of labour markets”: jobs are concentrat ing at either extreme and, above all, their quality and pay have decline d . Markets are also becoming increasingly concentrated as companies acquire dominant positions, which helps to explain the slowdown in productivity. Economic liberalism (globalisation of goods production, free movement of capital, labour market deregulation) was to bring about growth, efficient allocation of capital and full employment. The imbalances created by this choice are now clear to see: destruction of manufacturing jobs and inequality in OECD countries; destabilisation of emerging countries caused by volatile capital flows; skewing of income distribution and of risk-sharing to the detriment of wage earners. The message of hope is that some of these negative consequences can be corrected with new policies that are the subject of a growing consensus: Antitrust laws can be strengthened to eliminate dominant positions , one of the causes of the slowdown in productivity; Some of the excesses of globalisation can be corrected, for example by taxing imports from countries where social welfare is very weak or where no effort is made to reduce CO 2 emissions; by reverting to industrial polic ies with a view to creating large companies in industries of the future; or by reverting from global value chains to regional value chains; Speculative capital flows can be curbed , which is no longer a taboo - even within the international institutions; Income distribution can be rebalanced by increasing minimum wages or by returning bargaining power to wage earners.