Report
Patrick Artus

The impossible choice of struggling euro-zone countries

Struggling e uro-zone countries (Italy, possibly even France) are now faced with the choice between: Leaving the euro and devaluing their exchange rates, which would lead to major difficulties and possibly defaults among all economic agents (government, companies, banks) with external debt in euros; Staying in the euro and enduring: The inability to monetise fiscal deficits and therefore a sharp rise in interest rates when ever fiscal policy becomes more expansionary; The inability to correct a cost-competitiveness disadvantage other tha n by carrying out an internal devaluation, i.e. by reducing wages; Competition from countries that have carried out internal devaluations (like Spain). Leaving the euro would therefore be disastrous, but staying in the euro may also be disastrous.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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