Report
Patrick Artus

The inflation target has always disrupted euro-zone monetary policy

The fact that the ECB has an inflation target for prices of goods and services has led to: From 2002 to 2007, an overly expansionary monetary policy with quite low inflation, which was unable to prevent bubbles in real estate prices and excessive debt; From 2008 to 2013, an overly restrictive monetary policy given the cyclical situation, because surges in labour costs and therefore the risk of inflation led the ECB to maintain a quite restrictive policy; From 2015 to 2019, an increasingly expansionary monetary policy with low inflation, leading to another real estate bubble, an absence of monetary policy space if growth declined, financial intermediaries weakened, etc. So the inflation target has since the outset led the ECB to make bad monetary policy choices, compared with what would have been the monetary policy with a broader target (including asset prices, debt, the cyclical situation, nominal growth).
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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