The inflationary risk will only materialise in the United States if it cannot increase its external deficit

Financial markets and households now believe that inflation is going to return in the United States. Yet there is currently a very high degree of underemployment in the US economy. What would it take for inflation to return in the United States? Due to its huge fiscal deficits, spontaneously the US external deficit will increase. This is already visible. As long as domestic demand can be easily met by imports, there will be no inflation in the goods market (no more than in the labour market). But if the increase in the external deficit is not tolerated: Either there will be protectionism, it will become difficult to import and equilibrium in the goods market will require an increase in prices; Or the dollar will depreciate sharply, which will be inflationary. To believe there will be inflation in the United States, one must therefore believe that the increase in the external deficit will be rejected .