The international monetary system after the COVID Crisis
The COVID crisis may, by leading to a considerable increase in public debt and in the money supply, give rise to substantial changes in the functioning of the international monetary system. We believe the following key questions need to be asked: Has the huge growth in the money supply caused a movement of mistrust towards public currencies, and a shift towards safe-haven liquid assets: gold, cryptocurrencies? OECD countries have been able to increase their public debt significantly thanks to expansionary monetary policies and monetisation of public debt; but what about emerging countries? They do not, in principle, have the weapon of debt monetisation, due to the risk of capital outflows. How have international capital flows evolved at a time when central banks have been massive buyers of government bonds? Has their composition changed, for example to the benefit of purchases of shares or corporate equity?