Report
Patrick Artus

The “Japanification” of the euro zone

The euro zone is clearly on a path of what can be called “Japanification”, i.e.: Fiscal policy remains constantly expansionary, with a high level of public spending, leading to a trend rise in the public debt ratio; Monetary policy enables an ever-higher public debt ratio, with very low long-term interest rates that are significantly lower than the growth rate; Private domestic savings are diverted from financing private investment into financing fiscal deficits, which is bad for long-term growth. The question that may arise is whether euro-zone savers will accept this model. In Japan, inflation is usually zero (except in the event of a VAT hike or a sharp depreciation of the yen), which makes zero interest rates acceptable. But, even if there is financial repression, will European savers accept significantly negative real interest rates? Moreover, highly negative real interest rates in the euro zone (not the case on average in Japan) lead to an endless rise in asset prices.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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