The key difference today between emerging countries with external surpluses and those with external deficits

Risk perception is probably going to remain high for a long period, given protectionism, the Turkish crisis, the sanctions against Iran and Russia, the uncertainty over growth, etc. H igh risk perception systematically leads to capital outflows from emerging countries, which puts those emerging countries that have chronic or significant external deficits in difficulty. Economic and financial prospects for emerging countries are therefore now probably going to diverge durably depending on whether they have external deficits or surpluses.