Report
The key question for OECD countries: Is there still a mechanism that will push growth below potential growth?
The unemployment rate in OECD countries is very low . It must therefore be accepted that , at best, growth in the OECD is going to fall back to the level of potential growth. The key question today therefore concerns the existence or otherwise of mechanism s that could send growth in the OECD below potential growth. Are these mechanisms, which were present in the past, still present today? They could be: Inflation, and its effect on interest rates or real wages due to low price-indexation of nominal wages; A financial crisis, related in particular to the high level of debt ratios or real estate and financial asset prices; The cycle of corporate investment, which falls in the event of a prior overaccumulation of capital. We see there is now probably cause for concern at: A continuation of the rise in oil prices, but not endogenous inflation; The high level of asset prices (equities, real estate); The probably excessive level of corporate investment.
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Natixis
Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.
Patrick Artus
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