The key question for the United States is whether it will be able to attract the same amount of savings from other countries if global investment grows sharply

Our starting point is twofold: The first is that all countries will have to invest much more, in the ecological transition, in the production of military equipment and in strategic industries; The second is that the United States on average attracts 7 percentage points of GDP in savings from the rest of the world, which finance part of its investments and fiscal deficits. The key question is therefore whether the United States can continue to attract the same amount of savings from the rest of the world, when investment needs are set to increase in all countries, and the normal trend would be for countries other than the United States to keep a larger proportion of their savings. If the United States loses access to savings from other countries, it will have to reduce its investments, and we will see a sharp rise in US real long-term interest rates.