The major role of demography in the next 30 years

We look at the respective weights that the economies of the United States, the European Union, China, India, Japan, Latin America, Asian emerging countries (other than China and India) and Africa will have in the next 30 years according to demographic forecasts and what can be expected for productivity gains. We see that the hierarchy of countries by economic weight in 2050 will differ from today: A collapse of the position of the European Union and Japan; A recovery of the United States against China; Stagnation in Latin America; Very strong growth in Asian emerging countries excluding China and India, and in Africa; Strong growth in India, but whose GDP level remains low in absolute terms. The three most significant changes in countries’ GDP levels are due to demographics: Decline in Japan and the EU, which is only slightly offset by productivity gains; Decline in China, which prevents China from benefiting from high productivity gains.