Report
Patrick Artus

The monetary policy response to inflation: Why not move fast?

When inflation is very clearly higher than the inflation target, there are two possible strategies for central banks: Move fast by rapidly raising interest rates, so as to rapidly stamp out the inflation and be able to rapidly reduce interest rates once inflation is under control (this is probably the Federal Reserve’s current strategy); Move slowly in the hope that inflation will fall on its own, or to avoid inflicting severe damage on the economy and financial markets, and to smooth the monetary policy tightening over time (this is probably the ECB’s current strategy). But we believe that moving slowly runs the risk of runaway inflation by setting in motion a wage-price spiral. Interest rates would then need to rise even more, and the moment when the fall in interest rates gets the economy going again is delayed in time. Moreover, as the subsequent rise in interest rates can be expected, the economy and financial markets are not spared.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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