The most likely scenario for US and euro-zone long-term interest rates is that they will rise but remain significantly lower than growth rates

The economic recovery is naturally leading to an upturn in long-term interest rates in the United States and the euro zone . B ut we believe they will nevertheless remain far lower than growth rates and therefore that their rise presents no danger, for two reasons: Central banks cannot take the risk of letting long-term interest rates rise above the growth rate, due to the loss of borrower solvency that this would cause; Expansionary monetary policies are ineffective at driving up inflation, due to: The weak effect of expansionary monetary policies on household and corporate demand; The disappearance of Phillips curve effects. Inflation will therefore remain low, which will curb the rise in long-term interest rates. So there is no cause for concern at the rise in long-term interest rates.