The probability of inflation returning in the United States is not zero

The scenario of transitory inflation is still the most likely in the United States. It is also still the Federal Reserve’s scenario. But one must acknowledge that the probability of a sustained return of inflation is not zero in the United States , as : Wages are accelerating; The participation rate is declining (which is not the case in the euro zone); The fall in growth in the third quarter of 2021 has caused a weakening of productivity and an increase in unit labour costs in the United States , although without a fall in profit margins as the rise in production costs has been matched by a rise in prices. On the other hand, however, commodity prices are starting to fall.