The problem with managing public finances if households do not spend their forced savings
In 2020-2021, governments in OECD countries have run massive fiscal deficits, particularly to boost household income. But as households have not been able to consume freely, they have accumulated a very large amount of forced savings in 2020 and 2021. In 2022, governments in OECD countries want to start reducing their fiscal deficits fairly quickly. There are then two possibilities: Households consume part of their accumulated excess savings, and this additional consumption offsets the fall in the fiscal deficit and prevents it from having a negative effect on production; Households still do not consume their excess savings, and reducing the fiscal deficit will reduce production. The fiscal deficit in 2020-2021 has offset the decline in income, but exiting the fiscal deficit in 2022 is dangerous if this income derived from fiscal deficits is not spent, but remains saved (in financial or real estate assets).