Report
Patrick Artus

The public debt will never have to be reduced

There is much debate about the need to reduce OECD countries' public debt after the coronavirus crisis, during which it has increased massively. So there is talk about the need for restrictive fiscal policies and tax increases once the crisis is over. But these debates are incomprehensible: OECD countries' public debt ratio will never have to be reduced. This is because: If central banks never reduce the size of their balance sheet after the crisis, the public debt they hold in reality does not exist; it has been destroyed; The situation of excess private sector savings will be amplified by the crisis, in 2020 and beyond; this savings surplus will probably be invested in public debt; If governments do not believe in the irreversible monetisation of public debt, they could today issue debt with a very long maturity at very low interest rates, resulting in a very low cost of additional public debt.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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