The question of long-term interest rates

The question whether or not long-term interest rates will rise sharply in the future (not immediately, but in five or 10 years) is crucial. The existence or otherwise of a risk of financial crisis, the choice of fiscal policy strategy, whether or not the necessary long-term investments can be financed , etc. , all depend on the answer to this question. A discussion of the medium- to long-term outlook for long-term interest rates brings into play : An analysis of the weights of the various mechanisms that have driven down long-term interest rates: expansionary monetary policy, excess ( ex ante ) global savings; The question of monetary policy changes and its objectives: do central banks want or can they switch to a more restrictive monetary policy? Is there a risk in the medium to long term of significantly higher inflation than today? Might central banks be forced to react to an excessive rise in asset prices? An analysis of the risk of a return to a situation ( ex ante ) of global savings shortfall due to population ageing and new public and private investment needs. For long-term interest rates to stay low for long , thus averting a major crisis, inflation must not return, central banks must continue to aim to stimulate demand even if asset prices become abnormally high and the world must continue to have excess savings, all this despite population ageing, industrial reshoring, pressure to raise low wages, new public and private investment needs, the energy transition, etc.