Report
Patrick Artus

The real public debt ratio

Many observers are concerned about the rise in public debt ratios caused by the reaction to the coronavirus crisis. Will they trigger a crisis? Will they require an increase in the tax burden? But it must be understood that the public debt irreversibly bought by the central bank (it must not be resold and it must be rolled over at maturity) is de facto cancelled. The corresponding fiscal deficit is financed by money creation and not by debt. The "real" public debt ratio corresponds to the proportion of the public debt that is not held by the central bank and which may cause a financing problem; it is far lower and will not increase in 2020. We therefore have to get used to commenting on the public debt ratio excluding central bank holdings. Countries issue sovereign bonds that are immediately bought (and therefore de facto destroyed) by the central bank and which must be deducted from the stock of "real" sovereign bonds. The United Kingdom has just simplified this mechanism as the additional fiscal deficits caused by the coronavirus crisis will be financed by the Bank of England without going through a bond issue (Gilts), but what other countries are doing is equivalent to what the United Kingdom is doing.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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