The risk of primarily monetary savings
Long-term interest rates in OECD countries are set to remain low for a long time, which in reality results from the very significant risk that would result if they were to rise. This can be expected to continue to discourage saving in bonds. Initially, savings therefore shift from bonds into risky assets (equities, real estate, High Yield, etc.), which leads to a sharp rise in the prices of these assets. Later, however, savers and investors may become concerned about the very high valuation of these assets and therefore turn away from them. What happens if savers and investors shun investments in bonds and then in equities, real estate and other risky assets? The only solution is then for savings to be predominantly monetary. One consequence of savings pouring into bank deposits is that banks would have to intermediate the financing of the economy, with significant transformation risk.