The risks when risk premia are squeezed
Expansionary monetary policies have squeezed risk premia on all forms of debt: corporate bonds, bank bonds, peripheral euro-zone sovereign bonds, leveraged loans, etc. This has given rise to two risks: The risk of a recession, which would reveal that risk premia are lower than the actual risk; The risk of the expansionary monetary policies being withdrawn, which would drive up risk premia. The question is whether central banks are able to keep monetary policies sufficiently expansionary to prevent a recession and a rise in default rates.