Report
Patrick Artus

The sequence of losses when income falls

Like the subprime crisis, the COVID crisis is likely to lead to a fall in the level of GDP (income) , relative to what would have been the case without the crisis , that will both be permanent and increase over time (we look at the examples of the euro zone and the OECD as a whole). We are interested in the sequence of losses over time: which economic agents bear the loss in the short term and then in the long term? We find that: In the short term, governments and companies suffer a fall in their income; This is later the case of wage earners and banks. What would we like to see from a normative viewpoint? It is not possible for the government to permanently bear the cost of the income loss: this would result in an endless increase in the public debt or in the quantity of money if the public debt is monetised; T he situation must be improved for companies (so they can invest) and banks (so they can lend); U nfortunately , it is efficient to let wage earners bear the medium-term consequences of the income loss.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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