The sequence of losses when income falls
Like the subprime crisis, the COVID crisis is likely to lead to a fall in the level of GDP (income) , relative to what would have been the case without the crisis , that will both be permanent and increase over time (we look at the examples of the euro zone and the OECD as a whole). We are interested in the sequence of losses over time: which economic agents bear the loss in the short term and then in the long term? We find that: In the short term, governments and companies suffer a fall in their income; This is later the case of wage earners and banks. What would we like to see from a normative viewpoint? It is not possible for the government to permanently bear the cost of the income loss: this would result in an endless increase in the public debt or in the quantity of money if the public debt is monetised; T he situation must be improved for companies (so they can invest) and banks (so they can lend); U nfortunately , it is efficient to let wage earners bear the medium-term consequences of the income loss.