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The situation of current account balances and external assets/debts is very different from what population ageing would theoretically imply

In theory, countries with younger populations, which are less affected by population ageing, accumulate external assets while having a current-account surplus, since they protect themselves against future ageing . Countries with older populations, which are more affected by population ageing, reduce the external assets they have previously accumulated and have a current-account deficit, which makes it possible to support their standard of living when they are affected by ageing. So in theory, we should be seeing an international flow of capital from younger to older countries. We look at the situations of the United States, the euro zone, Japan, oil-exporting countries, China and other emerging countries as a whole. The situation of external assets/debt s and current account balances is in line with demographic theory in OPEC countries and China, but not in the United States, emerging countries excluding China and OPEC, the euro zone or Japan. Of course, other factors also come into play, such as the attractiveness of the region for corporate or financial investment, and the return on capital in different regions.
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Natixis
Natixis

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