Report
Patrick Artus

The slope of the Phillips curve in the United States and the euro zone since 1995

We estimate the slope of the Phi l lips curve in the United States and the euro zone since 1995 in two ways: Either by bringing the core inflation rate into line with the unemployment rate; Or by estimating the relationship between wages, inflation and unemployment rate and the relationship between core inflation and wages. We find: In the United States, that the effect of the unemployment rate on core inflation has remained stable over time; In the euro zone, that the elasticity of the effect of the unemployment rate on core inflation was much higher in the period 2019-2023 than in the previous period, 1995-2018. The fall in the unemployment rate has therefore had a strong upward effect on inflation in the euro zone in the recent period.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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