Report
Patrick Artus

The “slow” strategy to reduce public debt ratios

To reduce public debt ratios, it seems that central banks and governments will choose the following “slow” strategy: Keeping real long-term interest rates negative, and therefore much lower than growth rates, which ensures an "automatic" fall in public debt ratios; as a result, reacting only slightly, or partially, to inflation, both in the short and long term, with a rise in nominal interest rates that is smaller than the rise in inflation. This can be seen today, and will be seen in the future when the energy transition drives up inflation; Maintaining a high level of bond holdings by financial intermediaries (banks, insurers, pension funds) through financial repression (regulations requiring the holding of bonds), failing which financial intermediaries would refuse to hold bonds with such low yields. When we combine very low real long-term interest rates with financial repression, we see that the reduction in public debt ratios is, with this strategy, achieved by taxing bondholders (in addition to taxing money holders through inflation).
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Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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