The slowdown in global trade will in no way cause a significant fall in growth in the United States, Europe or China

Global trade growth has weakened, which is only very slightly due to US trade policy. Above all, it results from weak Chinese domestic demand and imports. But when we estimate the effect of the slowdown in global growth on economic growth in the United States, the euro zone and China, we find only a small effect, i.e. a loss of growth of: 0.10 percentage point of GDP in the United States; 0.33 percentage point of GDP in the euro zone; 0.15 percentage point of GDP in China. The slowdown in global trade, and, even more so, Donald Trump’s protectionism, are not going to cause a significant slowdown in growth. Commentators should stop writing that the trade war is plunging the economies into recession.