The solution of a "slow default" on public debt
An interest rate normalisation would lead to a public debt crisis in the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan and many euro-zone countries. So which economic policy strategy will these countries follow ? A debt restructuring (a drastic partial default) is unthinkable for large OECD countries. An interest rate normalisation should be combined with a far more restrictive fiscal policy (marked increase in the primary fiscal surplus) to prevent a debt crisis, but this choice is unlikely in the current situation. The only remaining solution is to keep interest rates markedly lower than the growth rate for a long time to reduce the public debt ratio. This is clearly a "slow default", since it involves a continuous “ plundering †of savers. Note that the solution is not inflation, although this is often mentioned: the solution is to have lower nominal interest rates than nominal growth.