Report
Patrick Artus

The solution of a "slow default" on public debt

An interest rate normalisation would lead to a public debt crisis in the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan and many euro-zone countries. So which economic policy strategy will these countries follow ? A debt restructuring (a drastic partial default) is unthinkable for large OECD countries. An interest rate normalisation should be combined with a far more restrictive fiscal policy (marked increase in the primary fiscal surplus) to prevent a debt crisis, but this choice is unlikely in the current situation. The only remaining solution is to keep interest rates markedly lower than the growth rate for a long time to reduce the public debt ratio. This is clearly a "slow default", since it involves a continuous “ plundering ” of savers. Note that the solution is not inflation, although this is often mentioned: the solution is to have lower nominal interest rates than nominal growth.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

Other Reports from Natixis
Alicia Garcia Herrero ... (+2)
  • Alicia Garcia Herrero
  • Gary NG
Alicia Garcia Herrero ... (+2)
  • Alicia Garcia Herrero
  • Gary NG
Alicia Garcia Herrero ... (+3)
  • Alicia Garcia Herrero
  • Haoxin MU
  • Jianwei Xu

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Get in touch