The Spanish locomotive still on the move

S pain’s GDP growth slightly accelerated to +0,7% QoQ in Q2 2025, after +0,6% in Q1. Year-on-year growth remained at +2,8%. Domestic demand was the main contributor, accounting for 0,9 point of the quarterly change, while foreign trade had a negative contribution. In detail, private consumption increased by +0,8% QoQ, after +0,5% in Q1 2025. On the investment side, gross fixed capital formation slowed at +1,6% QoQ, after +1,9% in Q1. Nonetheless, all components of investment shown a positive quarterly growth rate, especially the machinery and equipment side (+2,1% QoQ in Q2, after +1,8% in Q1). The external side was still the major unknown, the effects of the US trade policy being expected starting from April 2nd, before being postponed to August 1st. Finally, exports of goods and services slowed to +1,1% QoQ, after +1,7% in Q1. On the contrary, imports accelerated to +1,7% QoQ (after +1,5% in Q1), in line with the recovery of domestic demand to + 0,9% QoQ, from + 0,5% in Q1. On the supply side, the industry stayed the course, still growing by +0,8% QoQ in Q2. In detail, manufacturing industry accelerated to +1,1% in Q2 (after 0,8% in Q1). The strong performance of construction is noteworthy, growing at 1,5% QoQ (after +0,5% in Q1), and so is the one of services, at +1,2% QoQ, 1 point more than in Q1 2025. On the contrary, primary sector recorded a sharp decline of -9,5% QoQ in Q2, after +8,3% in Q1. T he carryover effect reached 2.3% at the end of the first semester. Thus, we maintain our forecasts of 2.5% GDP growth in 2025 and 2% in 2026