The structural decline in the cyclicality of long-term interest rates

In the United States and the euro zone, the cyclicality of long-term interest rates has declined steadily since the early 2010s: growth is driving up long-term interest rates less and less, or not at all. This can be explained by: The decline in the cyclicality of wages and inflation; The fact that expansionary monetary policies are increasingly maintained in the second half of growth periods, with the abundance of liquidity lead ing to investments in risk-free bonds even when growth is present; The rise in the global savings rate, which is a structural cause of low long-term interest rates.