The three mechanisms behind the slowdown in potential growth

OECD countries are expected to have lower potential growth after the COVID crisis, as was the case after the subprime crisis. When estimating potential growth over the period 2020-2030, three mechanisms need to be taken into account: Of course, population ageing, which has nothing to do with the COVID crisis; The effects of the COVID crisis: decline in available capital, shift in the sectoral structure of the economy and possible new deindustrialisation (hence a problem with skills, a shift of production to sectors with low productivity gains); The effects of the accelerating energy transition, resulting in stranded assets (capital that has become unusable) and higher relative energy prices.