The two possible drawbacks of a high fiscal deficit
A number of OECD countries (United States, France, Italy, Japan) are now conducting an expansionary fiscal policy, despite the fact that the unemployment rate is close to the structural unemployment rate. What are the two possible drawbacks of a high fiscal deficit? The decline in fiscal solvency, which may drive up long-term interest rates (unless the central bank monetises the fiscal deficit) and private savings, via the mechanism of Ricardian neutrality (the expectation among the private sector of a more restrictive fiscal policy in the future); The crowding-out of private spending, as savings finance a higher fiscal deficit, unless the central bank keeps interest rates low and the country can have a higher external deficit. Among the four OECD countries mentioned above (United States, France, Italy and Japan), we find the first problem (negative effect of the decline in fiscal solvency) in the United States, France and Japan, and the second effect (crowding-out of private spending) only in Italy.