The United States is beset by numerous structural problems and is saved only by its external borrowing capacity; but for how long?
The United States’ numerous structural problems are well known: The proliferation of companies with dominant positions, which sterilise innovation, generate rents and prevent the entry of new companies; The very sharp decline in the employment rate and in the participation rate, which can be attributed to the poor quality of the education system; Chronically low savings, which should normally weaken investment; The impoverishment of a large segment of the population, which should normally depress demand; Deindustrialisation, which reduces the number of skilled jobs. One therefore expects the United States to have low growth under the effect of both weak supply of goods and services (sterilised innovation, rents, declining employment rate, investment held back by low savings) and weak demand (income distribution skewed against wage earners, poverty, few skilled jobs). If growth is holding up in the United States, it is because its capacity to borrow from the rest of the world boosts its capacity to stimulate demand and investment. External debt offsets the structural problems, but for how long will the United States be able to continue to run up debt ?